The Inevitability of Renewable Energy

by John Brian Shannon

Renewable Energy costs have fallen to such a level over the past ten years that it now competes, sans subsidies in some locations, against heavily-subsidized fossil fuel power generation, nuclear power generation and hydro-electric dams which receive billions of dollars of subsidies every year.

Many people might be surprised to hear that; It certainly hasn’t been reported by a majority of the mainstream media.

Fuel Subsidies: The Elephant in the Room

Historically, the reason given for subsidies was to allow new industries to move past the typically turbulent first few years of operation, until they reached a sort of ‘steady-state’ when the business model was fully functional and profits alone could sustain the business, yet the conventional energy industries that have been an important and profitable part of the energy sector are still receiving billions in subsidies annually — while the new kid on the block finds that their much-smaller subsidies are tapering.

Since the first oil wells were struck in Pennsylvania in the late 1890’s, subsidies of one form or another have been an important factor in our primary and secondary energy world.

After the coal price crash in 2014 and the oil price crash of 2016, total volumes of coal and oil deliveries dropped significantly, while the actual subsidy regimes in place for those fuels did not change significantly. Therefore, any perceived subsidy drop must be viewed in the context of lower production which affected the total subsidy amounts received by those industries.

At the same time, many countries that have supported the development of renewable energy have lowered or eliminated their renewable energy subsidies. Germany is an telling example of an early-adopter that discontinued their renewable energy Feed-In Tariffs, while the United States has canceled their lucrative Production Tax Credit for wind energy projects.

And nobody seems to notice! Renewable Energy installations are continuing, the rate of new RE installations is at an all-time high and increasing on a month-to-month basis.

Renewable Energy vs. Conventional Energy

Global Energy Subsidy Totals WEO-2016

The value of subsidies to fossil fuels fell sharply in 2015 to $325 billion, down from almost $500 billion in 2014. Lower fossil-fuel prices were the main reason for the drop, but lower prices have also given additional impetus to pricing reforms in many countries, both fossil fuel importers and exporters. Even with the drop in 2015, the amount going to subsidise fossil fuels is still more than double the $150 billion spent on subsidies to renewable energy.

Renewable energy is the growth story of WEO-2016

In our main scenario, nearly 60% of all new power generation capacity to 2040 comes from renewables and, by 2040, the majority of renewables-based generation is competitive without any subsidies. In a scenario compatible with 2°C, significantly faster growth means that, in the four largest power markets (China, the United States, the European Union and India), variable renewables become the largest source of generation. — International Energy Agency | Fact Sheet: World Energy Outlook 2016

Renewable Energy jobs vs. Conventional Energy jobs.
Renewable Energy jobs vs. Conventional Energy jobs in the U.S. Image courtesy of Statista.

“According to a new report from the U.S. Department of Energy, solar power employs more people than coal, oil and gas combined.

Last year, solar power accounted for 43 percent of the Electric Power Generation sector’s workforce, while fossil fuels combined employed 22 percent. The statistic will be welcomed with open arms by those trying to refute Donald Trump’s assertion that renewable energy projects are bad news for the U.S. economy.

Around 374,000 people were employed in solar energy, according to the report while generation through fossil fuels had a workforce of just over 187,000. The solar boom can be attributed to construction work associated with expanding generation capacity.

The report states that the employment gap is actually growing with net coal generation decreasing 53 percent over the last 10 years.

During the same period of time, electricity generation through gas expanded 33 percent while solar went up by an impressive 5,000 percent.” — Niall McCarthy | Statista

Power to the People!

Conventional energy producers in business for over a century can’t seem to survive without huge subsidy amounts — while Renewable Energy barely topped $150 billion globally, and those RE subsidies are now disappearing.

Energy Darwinism:

It’s one more reason why it’s a great time to be a Renewable Energy blogger!

Energy Darwinism: The Case for a Level Playing Field

On the Economics of Wind and Solar Power

Originally published at The Beam | On the economics of wind and solar power — by Lion Hirth

“Many hope that wind and solar power will eventually become economically competitive on large scale, leading the way to a global low-carbon economy. Are these hopes justified?”

November’s COP22 climate summit of Marrakech gave climate policy fresh tailwind, after the blow of Donald Trump’s election. Even without a strong global treaty, national climate policies are multiplying — at least a certain type of policies. While the policy that economists often recommend — putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions — remains patchy, as a recent World Bank report shows, subsidies for renewable energy are booming: no fewer than 145 countries support renewables today. Germany’s Energiewende is a prominent, but not the only example: Obama’s Clean Power Plan features renewables as a centerpiece of climate policy, India’s National Solar Mission includes a 100 GW solar power target. In addition China is said to be considering a 200 GW target, and Morocco has announced the building of the largest solar power facility on the planet. Nearly half of all newly added electricity generation capacity was based on renewables. In ten countries, wind and sun deliver more than 10% of electricity consumed. These includes Denmark (43%), Portugal (24%) and Spain (23%).

Many hope that wind and solar power will eventually become economically competitive on large scale, leading the way to a global low-carbon economy. Are these hopes justified?

On the cost side, the economics of renewables look impressive. The costs of wind power have dropped significantly. On average, wind now generates electricity at $70–80 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) globally, as reported by the two international think tanks IRENA and IEA. Ten years ago, a roof-top solar array for a single family home cost more than $50,000 — today it sells for less than $14,000. (America’s LBNL and Germany’s Fraunhofer ISE provide more data.) Germany, which receives less solar radiation than southern Canada, now generates solar power at $90 per MWh. The United Arab Emirates have tendered a solar power station for $58 per MWh and recent auctions in Chile, Peru and South Africa have resulted in even lower prices.

On the economics of wind and solar power
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In some countries, wind and solar power are now cost-competitive with coal- and natural gas-fired power plants, even when carbon emissions are not priced. However, cost structures are very country-specific, and cost-competitiveness is not universal. Renewables tend to be cheaper where it is windy or sunny, where investors have access to low-cost finance, where fossil fuels are pricey, and where emissions are priced. In many places, however, coal-fired power plants remain the cheapest option for producing electricity, driving the renaissance of coal. Still, for renewables to have caught up with fossil plants in cost terms represents a huge success for wind and solar power.

Costs are, however, only one side of the competitiveness equation. The other is value. Merely comparing electricity generation costs between different plant types is misleading, as it ignores the fact that the economic value of electricity from different power stations is not the same. This is because on wholesale markets the price of electricity fluctuates from hour to hour (or even minute to minute). Some power plants produce electricity disproportionately at times of high prices (so called “peaking” plants), while others produce constantly at low prices (“base load” plants). This little detail has striking consequences for the economics of wind and solar power. Paul Joskow and Michael Grubb observed this a while ago.

On the value side, the outlook for renewables is…

Read the entire article here.

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Connectivity and Internet of Vehicles in China report

Connectivity and Internet of Vehicles in China: An exploration based on Zhihu and WeChat

March 2017

Executive Summary 

Connectivity is one of the main current technological trends in the automotive area.

With its rapid  digitalization, China is a major ‘testbed’ as well as a source of innovations in this field.

The present report uses data from the Chinese social web to find concepts and topics that dominate the Chinese discussion around connectivity and Internet of Vehicles (IoV; fTQ).

Our key observations are as  follows:

• Whereas connectivity already rose around 2011-12 in OECD markets, its China journey started relatively late (2014). Thus, the current progress and penetration are all the more impressive and uncover an even greater potential for future development backed by numerous supporting measures by the Chinese government.

• Foreign and domestic brands and services are equally present in the data. Foreign brands dominate  the car manufacturer area, whereas domestic Chinese brands are more present in the IT context. This balanced mix conveys the strength of local providers as well as the agitated landscape of international deals between car manufacturers and connectivity service providers.

• Major product aspects discussed in the area turn around smart and assisted functionality, safety and advancements in mobile internet technology.

• In a more strategic perspective, autonomous driving and its implications for the overall traffic system seems to be the leading concern. There are also numerous discussions about the underlying  technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and Internet of Things.


Connectivity and Internet of Vehicles in ChinaClick the image to view:
Connectivity and Internet of Vehicles in China (PDF)


Connectivity tag | Grasp Chinese consumer insight: the potential of social mediaClick the image to view:
Grasp Chinese consumer insight: the potential of social media

 


Anacode MarketMiner – Automated Market Research for the 21st Century

Anacode MarketMiner Simplifies China
via Automated Market Research

Anacode believes market research should be ready for the 21st century

That’s why we build MarketMiner, a text analytics software that cuts costs, time and complexity in market research – and gets you ready for taking better decisions based on the the authentic, intrinsic voice of your customers.

ABOUT ANACODE

Anacode is driven by a team of professionals in the fields of NLP (Natural Language Processing), software development and China business. We develop advanced data and text analytics solutions which help Western, non-Chinese customers in their quest towards an independent and unbiased understanding of the Chinese market. Our technology comprises algorithms for data collection and analysis which extract fine-grained, statistically relevant insights from various types of customer and market feedback. By putting our technology at your service, we save you the cost, time and often frustration associated with field and desk research on the Chinese market.

OFFERING

In order to help you grow your China business, we offer technology-based solutions in the following areas:

Anacode MARKETMINER MARKET REPORTS - WEB & TEXT API - MARKETMINER SAAS.
MARKETMINER

MarketMiner is Anacode’s proprietary application for end customers who wish to get a solid understanding of the Chinese market. The backend performs a classical pipeline with three steps: online data collection, data analysis and aggregation. The frontend, designed in English, allows to formulate your research questions by products, product features and customer segments. The analysis and aggregation are fully transparent – you have the possibility to trace back your result via intermediate aggregation and analysis steps back to the raw data.

TECHNOLOGY

With the rise of Big Data, text analytics is showing a constant upheaval in the past years.

What is different about Anacode’s technology? Human language instead of words

All our development builds on a strong linguistic basis which includes carefully classified lexica and ontologies, linguistically annotated training data, full syntactic parsing as well as a logical interpretation language based on compositional semantics.

We KNOW what we analyze, and use this knowledge to create a linguistically adequate training space. The data mining algorithms achieve a higher accuracy than traditional approaches centered around simple collections of keywords.

Industry focus

Each version of the software treats a specific domain. We use language-specific grammars and specialized industry lexica to achieve an accurate analysis. At the same time, we build on principles of multilingual engineering so as to fully support the globalisation efforts of our clients. We know where to look for differences and similarities to streamline development while making appropriate customisations and thus maintaining a high per-case quality standard.

Depth of analysis

Our algorithms combine linguistic and statistical methods and thus allow to pull more detailed information from our data.

For example, traditional sentiment analysis positions an opinion on a positive/negative scale; thus, a sentence like “The seats are old-fashioned” will be analysed as a negative opinion.

MarketMiner decomposes and “explains” the statement by telling that it is the visual appearance of the seats which leads to a negative evaluation, and more specifically a negative evaluation in terms of fashionability.


Welcome to Anacode’s Chinese API!

Anacode’s Web&Text API offers data collection and analytics tailored to the Chinese web and language, allowing China-facing businesses to extract maximal value from customer and market feedback.

The API is perfectly suited for users who don’t speak Chinese and want a quick, hands-on start with “native” data. Get started with your own analytics pipeline in four steps:

  1. Register for a free account and upgrade when needed.
  2. Get data:download our web data for your domain, or extract your own web data using our scraping call.
  3. Analyze: extract categories, concepts and sentiments using our Natural Language Processing.
  4. Visualize and integrate the results which are returned in English – using your own applications or our Anacode Toolkit.

A detailed documentation as well as a range of additional tools and on-premise options are available for your safe, smooth and focused experience in the Chinese data ocean.

Request a live demo

Not sure how Anacode can help you leverage the power of Chinese data? Request a live demo – we will be happy to walk you through our API and guide you in its proper usage for your specific requirements.




Anacode AIS Electronic Library AISeL

Description

Market research has long relied on reactive means of data gathering, such as questionnaires or focus groups.

With the wide-spread use of social media, millions of comments about customer opinions and feedback regarding products and brands are available.

However, before using this ‘wisdom of the crowd’ as a source for marketing research, several challenges have to be tackled: the sheer volume of posts, their unstructured format, and the dozens of different languages used on the internet. All of them make automated usage of this data challenging.

In this paper, we draw on dashboard design principles and follow a design science research approach to develop a framework for search, integration, and analysis of cross-language user-generated content.

With ‘MarketMiner’, we implement the framework in the automotive industry by analyzing Chinese auto forums.

The results are promising in that MarketMiner can dramatically improve utilization of foreign-language social media content for market intelligence purposes.

Anacode Electronic Library AISeL download button

Power to the People! Renewable Energy in the U.S.A.

by John Brian Shannon – Originally posted at JBSNews.com

U.S. renewable energy has made impressive strides in recent years

“According to a new report from the U.S. Department of Energy, solar power employs more people than coal, oil and gas combined.

Last year, solar power accounted for 43 percent of the Electric Power Generation sector’s workforce, while fossil fuels combined employed 22 percent. The statistic will be welcomed with open arms by those trying to refute Donald Trump’s assertion that renewable energy projects are bad news for the U.S. economy.

Around 374,000 people were employed in solar energy, according to the report while generation through fossil fuels had a workforce of just over 187,000. The solar boom can be attributed to construction work associated with expanding generation capacity.

The report states that the employment gap is actually growing with net coal generation decreasing 53 percent over the last 10 years. During the same period of time, electricity generation through gas expanded 33 percent while solar went up by an impressive 5,000 percent.”Niall McCarthy | Statista


Renewable Energy | Solar power now employs more people in the U.S. than coal, oil and gas combined according to a new U.S. Department of Energy report.
U.S. employment by energy generation source in 2016. Find more statistics at Statista

Solar Power and Wind Power combine to provide 475,545 U.S. jobs — while Nuclear Power and Fossil Fuel Power generation combine to provide only 255,293 U.S. jobs — but in recent years the Fossil Fuel industry gets 4 times more subsidy than Renewable Energy


Renewable Energy = Clean Air and Twice as many Jobs on 1/4 the Subsidy!


Here is a look at historical U.S. federal subsidies paid from 1918 to 2009 for various energy producers.

Renewable Energy vs. Non-renewable energy subsidies in the U.S.A.
Cumulative U.S. Federal Energy Subsidies from 1918 – 2009 | What Would Jefferson Do?

What Do Americans Think About Fossil Fuel vs. Renewable Energy?


Solar power and wind power (alone!) employ almost twice as many Americans as all nuclear and all fossil fuel power plants combined, but renewable energy gets only one-quarter of the subsidies in from 2010 onward.

Which might be a factor in the minds of Americans who look forward to renewable energy meeting their future energy demand.

Renewable Energy | Fossil Fuels are Falling Out of Favor in the U.S.
Percentage of U.S. adults who favor/oppose expanding these energy sources. Find more statistics at Statista

Renewable Energy Continues to Grow in the U.S.


This renewable energy statistic represents the cumulative non-hydropower renewable capacity in the United States from 2008 to 2016, by technology.
Cumulative non-hydropower renewable capacity growth in the U.S. from 2008 to 2016. Find more statistics at Statista

Despite the low subsidy amounts paid to renewable energy in the United States, non-hydropower energy continues on its growth trajectory and it’s now cheaper to build new solar capacity, than to build new coal capacity.


New Solar Now Cheaper Than New Coal


Costs for new solar power plants continue to plummet (without subsidy) vs. new coal power plants (with a small subsidy) is reflected in the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) per Kilowatt Hour price.

“As early as 2018, solar could be economically viable to power big cities. By 2040 over half of all electricity may be generated in the same place it’s used. Centralised, coal-fired power is over.”Solar has won. Even if coal were free to burn, power stations couldn’t compete — The Guardian


Billions of Gallons of Water Used Monthly by Conventional Energy


Renewable Energy vs. non-renewable energy by water consumption.
Renewable Energy vs. Non-renewable Energy by water consumption. Image courtesy of climaterealityproject.org

Many coal-fired power plants and several nuclear power plants produce well over 1000MW (1 GW) of electricity and it is easy to extrapolate their water usage.

For instance, a 1.6 GigaWatt(GW) coal-fired power plant (for the purposes of this discussion there’s a 1.6GW coal-fired power plant in Texas) uses 1,760,000 gallons of water per hour, while an equivalent-sized nuclear power plant uses 1,280,000 gallons of water per hour.

Meanwhile, a natural-gas-fired power plant producing the same 1.6GW of electricity would consume 480,000 gallons per hour, while a 1.6GW solar or wind power would consume zero gallons per hour.

Of course hydro-power does not consume any water during its decades of reliable power production, water merely falls through turbines and back into the river a bit further downstream — although during the construction of the dam, spillways, and hydro-electric turbine rooms, millions of gallons of water are used to make the concrete.


The Future of Energy in the United States


Renewable generation capacity expected to account for most 2016 capacity additions in the U.S.

The chart below shows just how much wind power in the United States has grown in recent years.

Renewable Energy | U.S. Wind Power Generation Capacity Surpasses Hydropower Capacity in 2016. Image courtesy of EIA
U.S. Wind Power Capacity Surpasses Hydropower Capacity in 2016. Image courtesy of EIA

The chart below shows the expected growth of solar photovoltaic power in the United States (does not include solar thermal)


Renewable Energy | U.S. Solar Power Installations Photovoltaic 2010 to 2020. Image courtesy of GreenTech Media and Solar Energy Industry Association.
U.S. Solar PV Power Installations 2010 to 2020. Image courtesy of GreenTech Media and Solar Energy Industry Association.

The chart below displays total utility-scale capacity additions from 2010 to 2016. For the third consecutive year, more than half of the capacity additions are renewable technologies, especially wind and solar.

A Majority of Energy Capacity Additions in 2016 Will Be Renewable Energy in the United States -- EIA
A Majority of U.S. Energy Capacity Additions in 2016 will be Renewables. — EIA

From 2013 through 2040, U.S. electricity demand is expected to grow approximately 1 trillion kiloWatt hours(kWh) with natural gas and renewable energy showing steady growth, while coal-fired power generation and nuclear power show slight declines according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Renewable Energy vs. Non-renewable energy demand. Image courtesy of the U.S. EIA
Renewable Energy vs. Non-renewable energy demand. Image courtesy of the U.S. EIA

If the United States converted their existing coal-fired power generation to natural gas by 2020, the U.S. could easily meet every international and domestic clean air target until 2050 as coal burns 10,000 times ‘dirtier’ (anthracite, or black coal) to 1,000,000 times ‘dirtier’ (lignite, or brown coal) when compared to natural gas.

Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal — Harvard Medicine

It goes without saying that if the United States replaced coal-fired power generation with renewable energy, it would surpass every U.S. international and domestic clean air target, lower U.S. heathcare and infrastructure spending by billions of dollars annually, save the U.S. billions of gallons of fresh water per month, provide millions of good-paying jobs for American workers — and prove the United States is still an exceptional power in the 21st-century. Not bad!