China surpasses all of its Renewable Energy targets (twice!)
In July of 2013, it was announced that China planned to add an unprecedented 10 GigaWatts (GW) of solar power per year for each of the next three years, (starting from FY 2013) for a grand total of 30 GW over 3 years.
But by October 2013 China’s solar target had been upped to 12 GW — and now in February 2014, while they are still doing the final counting, China’s total installations might well surpass 14 GW for 2013 — and yet another 14GW is planned for 2014 (for a total of 28 GW in only 2 years).
(Prior to China’s aggressive solar installation programme, Germany held the world record at 7.6 GW in 2011)
“The 2013 figures show the astonishing scale of the Chinese market, now the sleeping dragon has awoken.”
“PV is becoming ever cheaper and simpler to install, and China’s government has been as surprised as European governments by how quickly it can be deployed in response to incentives.” — Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Distributed Energy leads the charge
Officials from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) said that two thirds (8GW) of China’s 2014 target would come from the rapidly growing segment known as ‘Distributed Energy’ — installations comprised of small-scale arrays usually mounted on rooftops — or when not mounted on rooftops, are otherwise situated very close to electricity demand centres.
It is interesting to note that strong Chinese (14GW in 2014) and Japanese (7.2GW in 2014) solar PV demand will account for 40-45 percent of all 2014 global installations and that 2/3rds of that is expected to be small-scale, distributed energy.
Almost every week, new distributed energy sites are being announced in countries around the world. This one, announced in October 2013, is a typical installation at 120 MegaWatts in Zhenjiang, China. Click here to read more on that story.
Distributed energy will become the fastest-growing part of the solar market in China, Japan, Thailand and many other countries in 2014. Further, China continues to scale back on subsidies and incentives as the Chinese government increasingly sees solar PV as a mature industry, running near grid-parity in the country and capable of competing without government intervention.
Subsidies for Solar PV to virtually disappear by 2015
The biggest PV news in 2014 will be sustainable and unsubsidized solar power markets.
“With PV costs falling and traditional energy prices rising, there could be some 700 MW of unsubsidized PV announced worldwide.”
“While government subsidies and incentives have traditionally fueled the early growth and adoption of solar power, the recent scaling-back of these policies has left PV increasingly going solo – the signs are good, though, that the market might well be ready to take flight unassisted in 2014.” — PVmagazine.com
The Chinese ‘Year of the Horse’ will happen at full gallop
All in all, 2014 looks set to become a momentous turning point in the global PV industry, especially as Japan and China ramp up production/installation to unprecedented levels and drive towards unsubsidized, distributed energy solutions — and with no shortage of eager customers.
For very different reasons — Japan replacing it’s lost capacity due to the Fukushima meltdown and their citizens’ subsequent turn away from nuclear and China working towards improving their urban air quality — the future for solar PV and distributed energy in the Asia region looks very bright indeed.