President Trump and President Putin Change the US – Russia Conversation

President Trump and President Putin meet in Helsinki, Finland to chart a better future

Q: What could be worse than another Cold War between the United States and Russia?

A: Nothing. There is nothing that could be worse than another Cold War breaking out between nuclear armed superpowers that could conceivably destroy all life on the planet many times over. At the push of a button.

Boom! In an instant we’d be blinded by a flash and our bodies would heat up to 3 million degrees in seconds and everyone on Earth would end up floating around as carbon dust for a few years at 100,000 feet before finally settling down on top of the nuclear-winter snow that would cover the entire planet for about 40-years. (Nuclear weapons experts call that snow/radioactive carbon dust mixture, ‘grey goo’)

It’s a miracle it didn’t happen during the 40-year long Cold War, but we came within seconds of such annihilation many times over the course of those perilous four decades.


What the Helsinki Meeting Represents

For some people, the meeting between America’s President Trump and Russia’s President Putin represents an opportunity to catch one or both presidents in some sort of verbal gaffe, or to capture a sound-bite and milk it for all it’s worth — while for others, it’s a meeting between the two major nuclear powers that represents the best opportunity in the 21st-century to reverse the downward spiral in relations between the two nuclear hyperpowers.

That’s what is at stake here.

Anything else (and that means everything else!) just isn’t as important when you’re playing at that level.

Whether 12 or 13 Russian nationals may or may not have interfered in the 2016 U.S. election is orders of magnitude less important than the chance of nuclear war breaking out between the superpowers.

Also orders of magnitude less important is the purported (but unproven) collusion between President Trump and his people, and certain Russian citizens who may, or may not be spies or some kind of fixers or operators, and also orders of magnitude less important is Hillary’s purported carelessness in using a non-government (and therefore, non-secure) server to send or receive classified emails that Russian agents (purportedly) were able to hack and read. (That’s a lot of ‘purportedly’s’ — but everyone in America is presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law)

And those are all very interesting stories — unless a bigger story replaces them.

So let’s not get distracted by sensational headlines nor be complacent and forget about what’s really at stake.

The leaders of two nuclear powers met, apparently had a businesslike and friendly meeting, and important matters were discussed. That in itself was almost a miracle after the goings-on between the two superpowers over the past decade, which between them, possess over 13,300 nuclear warheads, while the rest of the declared nuclear powers in the world account for a total of 1065 nuclear weapons.

G7 comparison: Estimated Nuclear Warhead Inventories, 2018. Federation of American Scientists
Estimated Nuclear Warhead Inventories, 2018. Federation of American Scientists

Building On A Successful Helsinki Meeting

Rather than let the present momentum lapse, President Trump and President Putin must ‘strike while the iron is hot’ and schedule some arms control talks.

“If not us, who? If not now, when?” — President John F. Kennedy

In 1963, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (which banned atmospheric atomic and nuclear bomb testing) was signed by the United States and the Soviet Union and in 1996 was passed by the UN General Assembly.

The Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I) was signed by both sides in 1972 and ratified, which paved the way for SALT II in 1979 which was signed by both parties in 1979, but not ratified due to unrelenting bad press in the United States. However, both sides decided to adhere to the terms of SALT II even though it was never ratified. Which is the only reason we see near-parity in nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles between the United States and Russia today.

To keep the present momentum going, SALT II could be re-signed and ratified to pave the way for a SALT III treaty to be created — as per the original plan.

The logic of the SALT agreements is clear: The SALT I treaty limited Anti-Ballistic Missile sites and froze the number of missiles both sides could possess, while SALT II established numerical equality in nuclear weapon delivery systems and limited the number of Multiple, Independent Re-entry Vehicles (bombs) per missile, while the proposed SALT III was designed to drawdown and place firm and verifiable caps on the nuclear arsenals of both the United States and the Soviet Union to around 2400 each.

Before the present momentum between the two leaders fade, both men should push their respective administrations to re-commit to SALT II (as a formality) and ratify it before the end of 2018.

That would allow the necessary time to author a fresh SALT III agreement and schedule a signing ceremony for both SALT II and SALT III at the same time.

It’s not rocket science, it’s politics. But previous leaders just couldn’t get it done. Both sides have wanted to do this for almost 40-years, but (very suspiciously) something always cropped-up at the last minute to prevent forward progress on this most important of geopolitical issues.

“Things don’t happen, things are made to happen.” — President John F. Kennedy


Turning Nuclear Bombs into Electricity

At the end of the Cold War a deal was struck between the United States and Russia whereby excess nuclear bombs (remember; any number of nuclear bombs higher than 2400 for the United States and for Russia is complete overkill from a strategic defense perspective) were sold-off to nuclear power plants and used to produce many years worth of high grade, clean electricity.

The program was called the Megatons to Megawatts program and was called one of the greatest diplomatic achievements ever by Harvard’s Matthew Bunn.

The problem is that it had just begun to hit its stride when President Barack Obama unilaterally cancelled the program and after not much fanfare (only one NPR article) M2M ended.

Assuming both superpowers want to pare-down their nuclear arsenals to 2400 each, that leaves them with 4050 bombs (United States) and 4450 (Russia) to dispose-of. That’s 8500 bombs-worth of clean nuclear power! Folks, that’s enough nuclear fuel to power America until the year 2100 at present rates of usage.

It’s a shame that this noble program was ended long before the most amount of good could be obtained from the Megatons to Megawatts program.

Right now, President Trump could phone President Putin and offer to resume this super-successful program — and he might find a willing partner in Putin who seemed fine with M2M until it was suddenly cancelled in 2013.

Building on success is so much better than re-inventing the wheel, as the saying goes.


A Plug for the Big 5 – as Opposed to the G7

The trouble with the G7 is that the United States GDP, military, number of nuclear bombs, and balance of trade (and in many other metrics) is bigger than all the other G7 nations combined! The U.S. is just too big! It’s the proverbial elephant in the room. The other countries just can’t relate, so they overcompensate.

The recent problems between the U.S. and other G7 members at the recent Charlevoix G7 summit are systemic — the fault isn’t with any of the members. Whatsoever.

And now is as good a time as any for the United States to champion the creation of a new organization, an organization dedicated to superpowers and near-superpowers like Russia, China, Japan, and the EU. Alternatively, if one of those countries or blocs didn’t want to join, The Commonwealth of Nations could join instead.

In such an organization, members would find that the problems that superpowers and near-superpowers encounter would be similar problems and that solutions might also be found to be similar. At best, the world’s major powers could work together on their common problems, while middle powers like the remaining G7 nations (which would then be the G6 without the U.S.A.) could team up with the next 14 nations to create the middle-power ‘Next-20’ Group, or N20.

In that way, superpowers and near-superpowers would be grouped together (logical) and middle powers would be grouped together (also logical) and the previously noted systemic problems would disappear, allowing politicians to roll up their sleeves and get to work on common issues instead of struggling with one giant stuck in a group of middle powers.

Read about the astonishing differences between the U.S. and the other G7 powers here.


Geopolitical Momentum is Vital and Precious – It Must Never Be Wasted

Now that the two presidents have had their first major meeting that seemed to go very well, it’s time to capitalize on the goodwill before events sweep away those good feelings and once more, opportunities bigger than the sky are allowed to slip away!

Whether the next phone call between President Trump and President Putin is to discuss restarting the highly-successful Megatons to Megawatts program, or plans to meet with President Xi Jinping to discuss the Big 5 organization, or to build onto the world-changing SALT treaties — or some other plan the two presidents discussed — now is the time to build on the initial meeting success and positively change the conversation between superpowers and change the entire conversation that is happening in the global media because no other, better story appears to displace the existing conversation.

One of the ways leaders lead effectively… is to know when it’s time to change the conversation the media is having with itself and with its viewers.

I respectfully suggest, that time is NOW.

Written by John Brian Shannon

President Obama Orders 40% Cut in Federal GHG Emissions

Together, the combined results of the Federal Government actions and new supplier commitments will reduce GHG emissions (greenhouse gas emissions) by 26 million metric tons by 2025 from 2008 levels, which is equivalent to taking 5.5 million cars off the road for a year

As part President Obama’s commitment to lead by example – both by taking action here at home and showing leadership on the world stage — to curb the emissions that are driving climate change, the President issued an Executive Order that will cut the Federal Government’s GHG emissions 40% over the next decade from… Continue reading President Obama Orders 40% Cut in Federal GHG Emissions

Japan agrees with ‘All of the Above’ Energy Policy

by John Brian Shannon John Brian Shannon

President Obama’s famous All of the Above energy policy released during his first term and perfected in his second term seems to have gained some attention and perhaps some followers around the world. The latest is Japan, which has decided to embrace more and different types of energy to replace the lost nuclear power capacity since the Fukushima incident.

Prior to the earthquake and tsunami of March 4th, 2011, Japan received 29% of its electricity from its nuclear reactor fleet. Subsequently, many of the country’s 54 nuclear power plants were shut down for inspection and stress testing, and some have been scheduled for complete decommissioning at a total cost of well over $100 billion dollars, but possibly approaching $1 trillion dollars over 50 years if the damaged reactors at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant begin acting up and leaking even more than they have. Which could happen.

With almost 30% of their electricity production permanently unavailable or temporarily offline, the ever-industrious Japanese are looking to a better energy policy — one that will not leave them dependent on foreign politics, international trade disputes or shortages. Energy cost is a primary concern.

The good news is that Japan hopes to hit 20% of total electricity demand with renewable energy by 2030.

Japan’s energy choices include solar

Extensive research into solar utility-scale installations and rooftop solar for residential use in Japan have netted some amazing results. Japan ranks fourth among the nations with the most amount of solar capacity installed and continues a massive solar installation campaign. Some 10 Gigawatts of solar are being added to Japan’s grid this year.

Some farmers in Japan are finding that they can make more money with much less toil by turning their rice paddies into solar farms. In other cases, huge blocks of solar panels are mounted on floating pontoons in sheltered bays and lakes.

Japan-Energy-Transition-slide-1
Japan shows a clear preference for solar power, even as it experiments with other renewable energy such as wind, tidal, hydrogen and methane hydrate ice.

Wind energy in Japan

Wind energy is making strides in Japan and the future of that is under discussion. However, Japan feels a need to protect its tourism industry and does not want monstrous turbines cluttering up shoreline tourist areas. Nevertheless, the country is forging ahead with plans for the largest offshore wind farm on the planet in non-tourist regions of the country.

Tidal energy

Japan is a pioneer of tidal energy, with some locations producing power via underwater propellers anchored to the ocean floor via cables allowing them to be suspended in the water near the sea bottom safely away from ships hulls.

Undersea Methane Hydrates

Japan has sent ships to the Arctic ocean in recent years to mine methane hydrate crystals that line the sea floor for hundreds of miles in all directions. It turns out that just off Japan’s coast there is a gold mine of methane “ice” also known as clathrate (more specifically, clathrate hydrate) just sitting there waiting to be picked up. In fact, some successful prototype operations have been reliably producing power in Japan, using only locally-mined clathrate.

It is a clean burning fuel, as methane clathrate hydrate composition is (CH4)4(H2O)23, or 1 mole of methane for every 5.75 moles of water, corresponding to 13.4% methane by weight. There is nothing else to it. No sulfur, no nitrogen, no trace contaminants. Pure fuel mixed with water ice.

“Japan hopes that the test extraction is just the first step in an effort aimed at bringing the fuel into commercial production within the next six years. That’s a far faster timetable than most researchers have foreseen, even though there is wide agreement that the methane hydrates buried beneath the seafloor on continental shelves and under the Arctic permafrost are likely the world’s largest store of carbon-based fuel. The figure often cited, 700,000 trillion cubic feet of methane trapped in hydrates, is a staggering sum that would exceed the energy content of all oil, coal, and other natural gas reserves known on Earth.” – National Geographic

Hydrogen fuel for electrical power production and for vehicles

As a clean burning fuel, hydrogen shows great promise. The only catch with this fuel are the costs associated with splitting ocean water into its constituent molecules, which, after you filter out the salt and any contaminants is; 1 hydrogen atom + 2 oxygen atoms = 1 molecule of water. Using electrolysis to convert vast quantities of water into hydrogen takes a huge amount of electricity, which is fine if it can be had cheaply enough. With the advent of solar power gird-parity, hydrogen production suddenly looks attractive at a large scale.

“Now that Toyota Motor says it will release mass-production fuel-cell vehicles powered by hydrogen, Japan has set an even bigger goal of making hydrogen a main energy source for the nation’s electric utilities. The nation’s first “hydrogen energy white paper,” released Monday, calls on the country to become a “hydrogen economy” by adopting the fuel for utility power generation. The paper was produced by the government-affiliated New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization.” – Wall Street Journal

We are at a unique period of human history where doors that were once solidly closed are now opening. Our energy future will be more diverse and cleaner for those nations and corporations that are open-minded enough to see the possibilities of clean and renewable energy.

Although there have been some failures in the business of renewable energy (as in any new field of endeavor) things renewable energy are starting to gain traction and acceptance not only by the public, but by policymakers around the world.

Japan, after initially reeling from the tsunami and Fukushima incident, has profoundly embraced solar and wind power and experimented with the promising tidal energy technology and has advanced clean burning energy solutions such as undersea methane hydrates and hydrogen fuel.

Certainly, fossil fuels have their place and they will be with us for some time to come. However, rather than tying ourselves to One Big Energy source (fossil fuels) an All of the Above approach may turn out to be the best, long-term solution after all.