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WWF report: China can shift to 80% Renewables by 2050

by Guest Contributor: Chris Conner.
Originally published on World Wildlife Fund.

By embracing conservation measures and renewable energy, China can transition to an 80 percent renewable electric power system by 2050 at far less cost than continuing to rely on coal, according to a new report from World Wildlife Fund (WWF).

As a result, China’s carbon emissions from power generation could be 90 percent less than currently projected levels in 2050 without compromising the reliability of the electric grid or slowing economic growth.

Image Credit: China Solar Cells via Wikimedia Commons.

The future of renewable power is solar power in the distributed energy scenario. China Solar Cells Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons.

The China’s Future Generation report was prepared by the Energy Transition Research Institute (Entri) for WWF and uses robust computer modeling to simulate four scenarios based on today’s proven technology: a Baseline, High Efficiency, High Renewables, and Low-Carbon Mix scenario.

To develop its findings, Entri examined China’s electricity supply and demand on an hour-by-hour basis through 2050 using its advanced China Grid Model forecasting system.

“By fully embracing energy conservation, efficiency and renewables, China has the potential to demonstrate to the world that economic growth is possible while sharply reducing the emissions that drive unhealthy air pollution and climate change,” said WWF’s China Climate and Energy Program Director Lunyan Lu.

“This research shows that with strong political will, China can prosper while eliminating coal from its power mix within the next 30 years.”

In addition to ramping up development of renewable power sources, the world’s most populous and energy-hungry nation will need to simultaneously pursue aggressive energy efficiency initiatives to reduce electricity demand.

These efficiencies, including bold standards for appliances and industrial equipment, can reduce annual power consumption in 2050 by almost half, which would set the gold standard for these products globally and make the shift to a renewables-based power system possible.

“This research allows Chinese leaders to put the questions of technical feasibility aside and economic viability aside. Instead, it is time to focus on how to enact the right policies and establish the right institutions to ensure that China’s citizens and economy are receiving clean, renewable electricity,” said Lu. “The report shows that today’s technology can get China within striking distance of WWF’s vision of a future powered solely by renewable energy.”

The analysis also describes recent Chinese regulatory efforts and challenges to increasing the percentage of renewable electricity in the country, while providing a set of targeted recommendations for Chinese leaders and policy makers on energy efficiency, prioritizing low-carbon electricity supply investments, allowing price changes to reflect the true cost of service, and prioritizing collection and analysis of key power usage data.

“Both China and the United States are at a crossroads where leaders need to choose between a future where healthy communities are powered by clean, renewable energy or a future darkened by air pollution and the dangerous effects of climate change.

This year, as all countries develop new national climate targets in advance of talks in Paris, our leaders need to choose that brighter future.

For Chinese leaders the choice is simple. This report shows that renewables are doable. China can meet bold new targets with today’s technologies while cutting energy costs.” — Lou Leonard, WWF’s US vice president for climate change.

Three islands powered by 100% Renewable Energy

by John Brian Shannon.

One of the best ways to measure the successful application of renewable energy are on those islands which are not connected to any other electrical grid.

Getting mainland grid power to islands can be an expensive proposition, making it impossible for many islands to receive electricity from the mainland. In the past, islands survived (or subsisted) on expensive diesel power units and obscene quantities of diesel fuel, in order to provide electricity for island residents. Rarely was any kind of renewable energy employed except for some Pacific islands that burned relatively small quantities of coconut oil or palm oil in their diesel generator.

However, islands now have the choice between clean, renewable electricity generation and diesel generator power. Solar power and wind power are the two main ways to have renewable energy on islands, but biomass and in some places, geothermal can provide residents with reliable electrical power.

Renewable Energy Powers At Least Three Populated Islands

At least three populated islands exist in the world that can legitimately be called ‘100% powered by renewable energy’ and more are soon to follow, as islands can now significantly benefit from renewable energy.

Samsø Island, Denmark. A 100% Wind Powered Island

Samsø Island, Denmark. A 100% Wind Powered Island

Samsø Island, Denmark is a 100% wind-powered island whose 4100 residents receive all of their electricity from 21 wind turbines and are able to sell their considerable surplus electricity to the rest of the country via an undersea cable system.

Note, Samsø does not import electricity from the mainland grid, rather, they export Samsø Island’s renewable energy to the mainland.

In less than ten years, Samsø went from producing 11 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person per year — one of the highest carbon emissions per capita in Europe — to just 4.4 tonnes (the U.S. is at 17.6), and has proven that running on 100 percent renewable electricity is possible.

The island now heats 60 percent of its homes with three district heating plants running on straw, and one which runs on a combination of wood chips and solar panels. People outside of the heating plants’ reach have replaced or supplemented their oil burner with solar panels, ground-source heat pumps, or wood pellet boilers.

Eleven onshore wind turbines provide 11 megawatts of power, enough to power the entire electrical load of the island (29,000 MWh per year). And 10 offshore wind turbines produce 23 megawatts, enough to compensate for the carbon dioxide emissions generated by the island’s transport sector.

This was all accomplished within eight years, two years ahead of schedule. — Rocky Mountain Institute

Tokelau, South Pacific is an island nation made up of three tiny atolls which has been powered by 100% solar power since October 2012.

Previous to that, the Pacific nation was powered by diesel generators which frequently broke down and cost $800,000 per year just for fuel. That is quite a burden for a nation whose population amounts to a grand total of 1500 citizens.

Tokelauans only had electricity 15 to 18 hours per day. They now have three solar photovoltaic systems, one on each atoll. The 4,032 solar panels (with a capacity of around one megawatt), 392 inverters, and 1,344 batteries provide 150 percent of their current electricity demand, allowing the Tokelauans to eventually expand their electricity use.

In overcast weather, the generators run on local coconut oil, providing power while recharging the battery bank. The only fossil fuels used in Tokelau now are for the island nation’s three cars.

New Zealand advanced $7 million to Tokelau to install the PV systems. But with the amount of money saved on fuel imports — the system will pay for itself in a relatively short time period (nine years with simple payback). — CleanTechnica.com

Iceland has produced 100% of its electrical power from renewables since 1980. The country’s hydroelectric dams provide 74 percent of its electricity — geothermal power produces the remaining 26 percent. Some wind turbines are now being installed to meet anticipated future electrical demand.

The aluminum industry was attracted to Iceland to take advantage of the low renewable energy electricity prices on the island nation, which provides an economic boost to Iceland generally, and employment for some Icelanders.

Despite a land area of 100,000 km², only 300,000 people inhabit the island, two-thirds of those in the capital Reykjavik. Yet, Iceland shows what can be done when a nation puts its mind to the task of eliminating fossil fuels.

Until the extensive development of the island’s hydro and geothermal resources, the country was dependent upon coal and oil for providing transportation, fueling its fishing fleet, and heating its homes.

The latter is not something to take lightly in a nation just south of the Arctic Circle. Iceland’s older residents can remember a time when coal smoke, not steam from the island’s famed [volcanic] fumaroles, shrouded the capital.

Iceland is a leader in geothermal development and exports its technical expertise worldwide. The country, along with the Philippines and El Salvador, is among countries with the highest penetration of geothermal energy in electricity generation worldwide.

On a per capita basis, Iceland is an order of magnitude ahead of any other nation in installed geothermal generating capacity. — RenewEconomy.com.au

Perhaps moreso than anywhere else, island residents can reap the benefits of renewable energy. The high cost of shipping fossil fuels to islands, not to mention the high cost of the fossil product itself, can make the transition to renewables an economic and environmental benefit for island residents.

Other 100-percent-renewable-powered islands include Floreana in the Galapagos (population: 100) and El Hierro in the Canary Islands (population: 10,000+).

Islands with 100-percent-renewable-energy goals include: Cape Verde, Tuvalu, Gotland (Sweden), Eigg Island, Scotland, and all 15 of the Cook Islands.

By switching to renewable energy, island nations reduce their reliance on imported fuels, keep money in the local economy, provide their residents with reliable power, and lower their carbon emissions. They can also serve as “test beds” for adoption of new technologies and models of what can happen on a larger scale.

And island nations are helping us learn what needs to be done. —  Laurie Guevara-Stone.

China cuts Electric Vehicle subsidy, Tesla stocks soar

by Nicholas Brown

The Tesla Model S electric vehicle – now available in China.

Tesla Model S

China’s generous electric vehicle subsidy was rumoured for months to face huge cuts — but the Finance Ministry has lowered the subsidy by only half of what was originally planned (a 5% drop in 2014, and a 10% drop in 2015).

Electric Vehicle (EV) manufacturers within and outside of the country had been holding their breath ever since the first hints of a possible subsidy cut trickled out into the press.

However, since the latest announcement electric vehicle manufacturers have been celebrating — including Tesla Motors (TSLA) whose stock values have suddenly surged to a record high of $196 per share. Last year, 35,000 to 60,000 yuan ($5,780 to $9,900 USD) per electric vehicle were paid out in subsidies as the frenetic push continues for cleaner air within China’s smog-choked cities.

China has been on a manufacturing roll in recent years. Even companies that are not based in China choose to manufacture their products in the world’s most dynamic economy. Tesla Motors recently entered the Chinese automotive industry despite legal challenges — and Tesla brass expect the Chinese electric vehicle industry to be as large as, or even larger than that of the U.S.

That doesn’t surprise me, as China has the world’s largest population (1.35 billion in 2012, according to Google), and the world’s largest car market.

Apart from that, Tesla’s stock value could come crashing back down as it did in November of 2013. A 40% decrease occurred in a matter of months, possibly caused by reports of (only) three Tesla Model S fires.

However, every cloud has a silver lining — the fires, along with subsequent NHTSA test results, have showed that Tesla vehicles are quite safe. The NHTSA has since rated the vehicle and Tesla was awarded the highest safety rating ever by the NHTSA in 2013.

Information from CleanTechnica.com show the German’s agree with the U.S. National Highways and Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA).

Responding to potential concerns, the German Federal Motor Transport Authority, Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) decided to investigate the matter and check for manufacturing defects. Tesla complied, providing data and additional information related to the three Tesla fires noted above.

KBA conducted its investigation and came to the same conclusion as Tesla, writing:

“According to the documents, no manufacturer-related defects [herstellerseitiger Mangel] could be found. Therefore, no further measures under the German Product Safety Act [Produktsicherheitsgesetz (ProdSG)] are deemed necessary.”

I would also expect the electric vehicle industry to show strong growth as millions more of China’s citizens begin to enjoy disposable income levels on par with other emerging nations. In the China of 2014, hundreds of millions of people need economical cars today and (literally) millions of others are waiting for the opportunity to buy a luxury car. In some cases, due to the long waiting lists the delivery date for a luxury imported car can take longer than one year in China.

According to the Wall Street Journal, even Rolls-Royce sells more cars in China than they do in most countries, at a cost of hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars per vehicle. China and the U.S. are the most significant markets (as of January 2014) for Rolls-Royce.

Tesla is due to report their fourth quarter results on February 19.

Source: CNN Money

Editor: John Brian Shannon

Wind Power Setting New Records in Asia

by John Brian Shannon.

Global Wind Power Capacity Set to Rise

In recent years, about 100,000 MegaWatts (MW) of wind power have been installed every three years, globally. As wind turbine technology and production facilities have ramped up, turbine costs have fallen significantly — resulting in a predictable demand curve.

The U.S. and China are by far, the world’s major players, with Germany, Spain, and Japan holding respectable positions in capacity and in turbine technology. As China entered the game, their massive manufacturing sector went into overdrive to meet expected demand. Some countries, (like the Netherlands) licensed their advanced turbine technology to China which worked to further speed production and installations inside the Middle Kingdom.

Huge increases in turbine supply, have resulted in huge increases in installations. The supply/demand result displays brilliantly in the chart below.

World Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity 1980-2012
World Cumulative Installed Capacity 1980-2012. Image courtesy of the Earth Policy Institute.

Looking at the chart, is there any doubt that the brisk pace of turbine installations will continue? Barring localized disruptions due to changing regulations or lowering of regional subsidy schemes, it looks like 100,000 MW will be added to the world grid every three years until 2020 at the very least.

Wind Power Ready for Takeoff in Asia

A recent Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) report informs us that 2013 was a relatively ‘slow year’ for turbine installations with only 12.5% global growth over 2012 numbers. Most of the blame for this rests on the ‘on again — off again’ uncertainty surrounding the expiration of the PTC (Production Tax Credit) in the U.S. which was responsible for severely limiting the number and size of installations in that country.

Except for America, most of the world saw growth in turbine installations for 2013. China, especially, took off at a full gallop,beginning 2013 with 75,324MW of installed wind power and adding another 16,100MW by Jan 1, 2014 – amounting to almost half all new wind power installations worldwide! Installed capacity in China now totals 91,424MW leading the GWEC to speculate the country’s wind industry may be entering a new phase of maturity.”

China has embarked on the greatest push for renewable energy the world has ever seen. A key element involves more than doubling the number of wind turbines in the next six years. Already the world’s largest producer of wind power, China plans further massive increases. From a current installed capacity of 75 GigaWatts the aim is to achieve a staggering 200 GigaWatts of installed wind power by 2020.” — BBC

Wind surpasses Nuclear in China in 2013

At 2% of total electrical power generation in China wind surpassed nuclear (1.2%) last year, to become the country’s third-largest generator of electricity, after fossil fuels (all fossil fuels together total 78.2%) and hydro-electric (18.5%).

By 2020, even accounting for the growth of all other kinds of energy in China, it will represent 4% of total electrical generation. Which doesn’t sound like much, but it is a staggering number in itself, especially when compared to the rest of the world’s turbine installations combined!

What can renewable energy investors expect 2014-2020?

Plenty of growth for one thing. Better turbine technology and enhanced reliability, for another. More focus on so-called ‘wind corridors’ — those areas within a country’s boundaries where it happens to be most advantageous to place each turbine — yet close enough to electrical demand centres to be economical. Dramatically increased efficiency due to placing the turbine unit atop taller towers in the 200-300m range. Falling turbine prices will continue, courtesy of the massive entry into the global turbine market by China. And, turbine technology improvements and installations will continue at a rapid pace within China, and at a steady pace globally.

Perhaps the final word on the state of the industry in 2014 should go to David Shukman, the BBC’s science editor: “If any country can industrialise wind power and make it pay, it’s China.”

China Drops Subsidies, still Smashes Solar Records

by John Brian Shannon

China solar power record-setting installations in 2013, were mostly 'Distributed Energy' installations. (Rooftop solar PV)
In 2013, 2014 and 2015 China ramps up solar PV production/installation to unprecedented levels and drives toward unsubsidized, distributed energy solutions.

China surpasses all of its Renewable Energy targets (twice!)

In July of 2013, it was announced that China planned to add an unprecedented 10 GigaWatts (GW) of solar power per year for each of the next three years, (starting from FY 2013) for a grand total of 30 GW over 3 years.

But by October 2013 China’s solar target had been upped to 12 GW — and now in February 2014, while they are still doing the final counting, China’s total installations might well surpass 14 GW for 2013 — and yet another 14GW is planned for 2014 (for a total of 28 GW in only 2 years).

(Prior to China’s aggressive solar installation programme, Germany held the world record at 7.6 GW in 2011)

“The 2013 figures show the astonishing scale of the Chinese market, now the sleeping dragon has awoken.”

“PV is becoming ever cheaper and simpler to install, and China’s government has been as surprised as European governments by how quickly it can be deployed in response to incentives.” — Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Distributed Energy leads the charge

Officials from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) said that two thirds (8GW) of China’s 2014 target would come from the rapidly growing segment known as ‘Distributed Energy’ — installations comprised of small-scale arrays usually mounted on rooftops — or when not mounted on rooftops, are otherwise situated very close to electricity demand centres.

It is interesting to note that strong Chinese (14GW in 2014) and Japanese (7.2GW in 2014) solar PV demand will account for 40-45 percent of all 2014 global installations and that 2/3rds of that is expected to be small-scale, distributed energy.

Almost every week, new distributed energy sites are being announced in countries around the world. This one, announced in October 2013, is a typical installation at 120 MegaWatts in Zhenjiang, China. Click here to read more on that story.

Distributed energy will become the fastest-growing part of the solar market in China, Japan, Thailand and many other countries in 2014. Further, China continues to scale back on subsidies and incentives as the Chinese government increasingly sees solar PV as a mature industry, running near grid-parity in the country and capable of competing without government intervention.

Subsidies for Solar PV to virtually disappear by 2015

The biggest PV news in 2014 will be sustainable and unsubsidized solar power markets.

“With PV costs falling and traditional energy prices rising, there could be some 700 MW of unsubsidized PV announced worldwide.”

“While government subsidies and incentives have traditionally fueled the early growth and adoption of solar power, the recent scaling-back of these policies has left PV increasingly going solo – the signs are good, though, that the market might well be ready to take flight unassisted in 2014.” — PVmagazine.com

The Chinese ‘Year of the Horse’ will happen at full gallop

All in all, 2014 looks set to become a momentous turning point in the global PV industry, especially as Japan and China ramp up production/installation to unprecedented levels and drive towards unsubsidized, distributed energy solutions — and with no shortage of eager customers.

For very different reasons — Japan replacing it’s lost capacity due to the Fukushima meltdown and their citizens’ subsequent turn away from nuclear and China working towards improving their urban air quality — the future for solar PV and distributed energy in the Asia region looks very bright indeed.

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