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Preparing for a Post-Brexit UK: Transportation

So many people are caught up in the present Brexit moment they forget there will be life after the official Brexit date of March 29, 2019.

With that in mind, policymakers must begin to focus on the problems that will still be with us in the immediate post-Brexit timeframe.

Q: Why can’t they do that now?

A: Because their hands may be tied by present EU regulations, or everyone is waiting to see what kind of Brexit deal the UK gets, or they’re busy advising business groups and the government how to maximize their Brexit advantage.

So let’s begin the post-Brexit era by solving problems we know will still remain after Brexit day — and use solutions that aren’t presently viable due to EU regulations or norms.


Ask Any Londoner and They’ll Tell You their Worst Daily Problem is City Traffic

Actually, the worst problem Londoners face is the weather. But the City’s notorious traffic congestion starts early, the roads become increasingly packed with vehicles, air pollution levels skyrocket, life occasionally becomes dangerous for pedestrians, and it wastes millions of hours of time every year.

Not only London, but Manchester, Birmingham, Belfast, Edinburgh and other UK cities force drivers to spend countless hours stuck in traffic and millions of gallons of petrol are wasted annually as cars and lorries inch along the country’s congested roadways.

Of course nothing can be done about it — because if something could be done it would’ve already been done! Right?

Except there is a way to decrease traffic congestion: Theresa May’s first legislation following Brexit should be to ban all lorries from operating within cities of 1 million inhabitants or more — from 6:00am until 6:00pm every weekday.

Lorries could still cross from the continent on ferries or via the Chunnel, operate in the countryside, passing through towns and smaller cities and arrive at (for example) London’s Ring Road anytime after 6:00pm each weekday. Yes, they’d need to obtain ‘the key to the shop’ to unload the shipment at ‘Mom & Dad’s Deli’ or perhaps drop an appropriately sized (and electronically locked) crate full of goods on the loading dock.

It’s a scheduling issue for freight companies; As long as their large vehicles are parked or otherwise off the UK’s major city roads by 6:00am each weekday they won’t incur automatic/electronic fines and they’ll be able to go on with the rest of their day as normal.

Trash haulers, freight delivery, fuel trucks and other transporters will simply adjust their schedules to comply with the weekday hours ban.


List the of Benefits of Such a Plan!

Think of Britain’s major cities free of lorries within their city limits from 6:00am until 6:00pm every weekday:

  1. Less traffic, less traffic noise, less congestion and less gridlock.
  2. Increased parking availability.
  3. Better visibility for cars, cyclists and pedestrians equals fewer accidents and lower NHS spending.
  4. Lower air pollution levels on weekdays resulting in fewer respiratory emergencies, thereby saving the NHS budget millions annually and helping the UK to meet its international clean air commitments.
  5. Although lorry drivers would work different hours, they’d have far less traffic to deal with between the hours of 6:00pm and 6:00am, their big rigs would have acres of room to maneuver around in and they’d easily find parking to offload or load their goods.
  6. An automatic/electronic fine for lorries that enter the city during banned hours of the day could go towards building major lorry parking/queuing areas on the outskirts of major cities. Perhaps a great place to set up coffee shops and motels dedicated to truckers so they can grab a few hours sleep before their afternoon shift/night shift begins? And (while they sleep during the day) have their big rig repaired at a shop within the secure ‘Trucker Zone’ area. If so, I want to invest in those dedicated Trucker Zones — talk about having a captive audience! — the lorries can’t leave until 6:00pm and if they do they would automatically incur a £100 fine as soon as they pass the “City Limits” sign a few feet down the road!
  7. Trucking companies could arrange to have a fully loaded lorry parked and ready to roll at such ‘Trucker Zones’ for each night shift driver to pick up at the beginning of his/her shift and provide a safe place to drop it off in the morning.
  8. Lorry drivers should gain free and hassle-free parking anywhere in the city between 6:00pm and 6:00am and receive special consideration from police in case a lorry driver happens to park in front of a ‘No Parking Zone’ for the few minutes it takes to deliver the load. As hardly anyone is around in the middle of the night and there’s no traffic, why make an issue of minor parking rules?
  9. Lorries leaving major UK cities at 6:00am could pull into the ‘Trucker Zone’ nearest them at the end of their shift, leaving the lorry there for the daytime driver to carry on with the day shift’s rural deliveries/pick ups.
  10. National productivity could be enhanced by requiring lorries to remain outside city limits (or parked within the City) during the daytime hours, giving them free run in cities until 6:00am.
  11. Cities might notice more lorry traffic at the weekend. However, the vast majority of cars aren’t on city roads during the weekend so lorry traffic won’t be too onerous.

Certainly, traffic and congestion in the UK aren’t the fault of the EU, but in the post-Brexit timeframe UK regulators will have a freer hand to solve many issues. Traffic congestion is a problem that affects everyone whether you drive a car, ride a bus, pedal a bike, own a business, or are a tourist who wants to get from tourist site “A” to tourist site “B” and not spend the whole day at it.

Cities depend upon free movement of goods and people. Moving to a two-track plan to obtain better use from city roads could radically change how we use cities. And the day after Brexit is as good a time as any to begin making the best use of those valuable assets.

Image courtesy of motortransport.co.uk

Written by John Brian Shannon

Is Growth Possible in a Post-Brexit Economy?

“KPMG predicts economic growth of 1.4 per cent next year, but cuts this to 0.6 per cent if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.”The Times

While some firms predict slower than normal growth for the UK economy in the post-Brexit timeframe, it’s always good to reflect on the assumptions that forecasters employ in creating their reports and why such forecasts can cause more harm than good.

  1. If you tell your employees that, ‘the chips are down, the economy is sinking, and corporate belt-tightening isn’t far off’ they are likely to respond in a negative way. Some may look for other employment, some will opt for early retirement, while others spend more time in the staff room talking with their coworkers about their employment concerns than getting their work done. Which means such reports can actually cause the negative outcome they’re warning about. It’s human nature to perform to a predicted level instead of trying to exceed expectations. There are few exceptions to this behavior and they are called names like; Olympic athlete, Pulitzer Prize Winner, President, or Astronaut who have the innate ability to ‘power through’ the negative times without losing momentum.
  2. Such reports deal with known inputs only. For example, a zero-tariff trade deal with the Americans may seem far off today, but by 2020 it may already be signed. And not only the U.S., other political and trade blocs are likely to sign trade deals with the UK following Brexit. The AU (Africa), MERCOSUR (the South American trade bloc), the Pacific Alliance (several Pacific nations), the CPTPP (the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) nations, ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), The Commonwealth (Commonwealth of Nations), and China, are likely to expand their trade links with the UK after it departs the European Union. America and those seven trading areas will have a combined total of 7.0 billion people by 2020. That’s a lot of potential consumers, and the massive opportunities presented by signing zero-tariff trade deals post-Brexit are absent in most economic projections by design. Even if the UK were to sign only one free trade deal (with the U.S., for example) it could improve UK growth by a full 2 per cent or more. Presto! A shiny new UK economy!
  3. “Now we’ve got them!” While economic forecasting provides vital information for policymakers, Brexit negotiators aren’t helped by the news that growth will slow even in the face of a ‘good Brexit deal’ and will slow moreso in a ‘no Brexit deal’ scenario. It’s the kind of report that makes Michel Barnier’s day! KPMG is certainly one of the most respected firms around, but if you’re a Brexiteer and a report like this has been released to the public instead of it remaining in the hands of policymakers it plays with your mind; “Are they working for the UK’s best interests or are they working for the EU’s best interests?” (and) “Who commissioned (who paid for) this report and what parameters were used?”

So, while the good people of KPMG do their best to provide policymakers with the best near-term assessment of the UK economy, making such reports public can actually cause the negative things to occur about which the report warns.

That’s why policymakers everywhere must be ahead of the curve and treat all such documents as ‘the worst-case scenario’ without exception.

Now that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been reliably informed that the worst the UK can do is 0.6 per cent growth between now and 2020, it should be an easy matter to arrange a number of free trade deals and blow the doors off that projection by 3 or 4 per cent by 2020.

Looking at this in the proper context means accepting that exiting the European Union is merely a necessary stepping stone to get the UK to 4 per cent growth by 2020 — which should result in Theresa May keeping the PM’s chair for at least one more term and with all past ‘political sins’ forgiven.

Not a bad deal Theresa, if you’re up for it! 🙂

Written by John Brian Shannon

How Canada and the UK Could Work Together Post-Brexit

Until the official Brexit date of March 29, 2019 the UK remains in the European Union — which means that Britain remains a party to the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada.

And the CETA accord is a very fine agreement (as it should be, because it took 7-years to negotiate) but it may take another year or two to become fully implemented. At the moment CETA is only partially implemented, but eventually 98% of tariffs between Canada and the EU will be eliminated.

Once Brexit happens on March 29, 2019, the UK will cease to be a CETA signatory and something else (a ‘drop-in’ agreement) will need to replace it.

That is the topic of this blog post.

Enter the United States, Canada, and NAFTA.


Where’s Canada on the International Trade Map?

Canada is a surprisingly strong exporting country. With a population of only 36 million and a territory that measures 3.855 million square miles, it means the country is practically empty.

Across this huge landscape are fields of crops larger than the entire UK, but Canada’s few cities are large. In fact, the Greater Toronto Area (the GTA) is larger and has a greater population than the New York Metropolitan Area.

And it’s an exporting superstar; Making it the 11th highest exporting nation in the world.

“Canada is currently the fourth largest exporter of cars in the world and the ninth largest auto producer in the world, making 2.1 million cars a year. Trade with the U.S. is by far the most powerful driver for the automotive sector.”Export Development Canada


What if There’s No New NAFTA Agreement?

If the NAFTA agreement falters due to insufficient efforts between U.S. and Canadian negotiators Canada will end up producing cars for itself — which means it won’t be exporting 1.8 million cars to the United States annually once NAFTA is terminated (or) once President Trump slaps a 25% tariff on Canadian cars exported to the United States.

Which means a lot of Canadian autoworkers are going to become unemployed the day after that announcement.

Which means that Canada (insert drum roll here) needs a ‘Plan B’.


President Trump Isn’t ‘Being Evil to Canada’ He’s Protecting American Interests Because That’s His Job!

You can’t blame him for that. For goodness sake he’s the President of the United States, not of Canada.

But Canada can’t sit idly by and wait for the world to end. The country must pick itself up and get on with business.

And the best way to do that is to respectfully approach the UK and inform them that it’s likely NAFTA will be terminated or changed in ways that result in Canada having an excess auto manufacturing capacity of up to 1.8 million units per year.

Such manufacturing capacity could be very useful to the UK government and to UK industry.


How Canada and the UK can Work Together for Mutual Benefit

The cost of living in the UK is much higher than it is in Canada, therefore wages in the UK are higher than in Canada.

And it’s the reason why only premium car lines are built in the UK where the high labour cost for exceptional hand-built cars are reflected in the final price and nobody minds paying extra. See; Aston Martin, Jaguar, Land Rover, etc.

Even Rolls Royce and Bentley were forced to move to continental Europe because they couldn’t afford the high labour costs of UK workers and the costly land/building/business costs of manufacturing cars in the United Kingdom.

Post-NAFTA, huge opportunities exist for Canada to export lower-priced GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler (FCA) cars and trucks to the UK — freeing-up huge amounts of disposable income for Britons.

Which means that saved money will be spent elsewhere in the UK — whether on home renovations, tuition, school supplies, vacations or investments — because it isn’t going anywhere (it isn’t going to magically vanish!) it will simply be spent on other items.

Any Canadian-built vehicles that are exported to the UK over what the UK market can sustain can be forwarded to Commonwealth of Nations countries by UK re-exporters.

India alone has a population of 1.32 billion and its economy is rising fast to become the third-largest consumer economy in the world. There’s no lack of demand for cars and trucks in the Commonwealth.

A Must Read: India Poised To Be Third Largest Consumer Economy (Forbes)

All of which works to help the UK economy.


Trump Wins, Trudeau Wins and May Wins!

President Trump wins because he will have prevented Canada from exporting 1.8 million vehicles to the United States annually, and American factories (meaning American workers) will need to fill that demand gap, Prime Minister Trudeau wins because he will have saved the Canadian jobs associated with the manufacturing of those 1.8 million cars and trucks, and Prime Minister May wins because she will have ushered in three new lines of lower-priced vehicles for UK consumers and those savings will translate into higher levels of disposable income for British consumers that can be spent elsewhere in the UK economy.

It’s so easy when you know how…

Written by John Brian Shannon

France vs. UK: Battle of the Fishing Boats

Fishing boats from France and the UK clash in international waters off the French coast

While my head is with the British fishermen attacked yesterday for legally scraping for scallops in international waters, my heart is with the French fishermen who illegally attacked the British fishing boats.

It seems the government of France passed a law that only French fishers must obey, but those French fishermen and fisherwomen were upset not at their own government, but at the British fishers who were merely exercising their legal right to harvest scallops in international waters — and chose to throw large stones at the British boats and crews (breaking some windows in the UK fishing boats) and (dangerously) shot flares across the decks of a British fishing vessel.

It needs to be said again, that the British fishers were operating legally in international waters and following all EU and UK laws.

French law has only the power to restrict French scallop fishermen and fisherwomen — and the actions of the French crews aren’t acceptable in a civilized world.

If French fishers have a problem with French law… they need to take it up with the government of France. Full Stop! (Arrêt complet!)


Yet Another Reason to Exit the EU and the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP)

If UK fishers are expected to follow all relevant EU laws (and they do) but French fishermen aren’t expected to follow all relevant EU laws (and they don’t — that’s now proven by these latest acts of violence and intimidation) how is that fair to the British?

Fishing in UK Waters

When EU and UK fishers operate in British waters they must follow all relevant EU and UK laws even if they must toss millions of tonnes of dead fish overboard every year — because under EU law — if the fish are not of a certain size they must be thrown back (dead or alive) into the water. Which has a devastating effect on the UK fishery and the larger North Sea fishery. How could it not?

And French (or other EU boats) are never attacked by UK fishermen in international waters nor in UK waters…

Fishing in International Waters

Yet for some reason, fishermen from France feel they have the right to threaten and assault UK fishers and damage British fishing vessels that are operating legally in international waters.

That’s a stark difference in mindsets between UK fishers and French fishers…

And it’s called ‘entitlement’.

French fishers feel they can assault UK fishers because they feel ‘entitled’ to do so — even though the UK boats were operating in international waters and were following all relevant fishing laws of the EU and the UK.

It’s certainly not the fault of UK fishers that the French government banned French fishers from scallop fishing from May 15 to October 15!

Feelings of ‘entitlement’ by French fishermen and fisherwomen is perhaps symptomatic of a larger problem throughout the European Union; EU citizens feel ‘entitled’ while UK citizens feel they themselves must always follow the law. See the difference in mindsets?

Perhaps it’s just one of many reasons that the first time Britons got a chance to vote on EU membership they voted to Leave… but I’m sure that reasoning (causality?) was lost on those French fishermen during the heated exchange at sea.

Let’s hope the UK fishers take the French fishers/vandals to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and that damages are awarded to the innocent UK fishers. If not, we’ll know that the EU doesn’t practice what it preaches…

Written by John Brian Shannon

Image credit: BBC


Read another article about EU / UK relations: Getting the EU to the Brexit Negotiating Table

Is There Enough Demand ‘Out There’ to Float a post-Brexit UK Economy?

Excerpt from Bloomberg News: “Chinese internet users have crossed the 800 million mark for the first time ever as of June 2018, according to the 42nd China Statistical Report on the Internet Development issued by China Internet Network Information Center. With 802 million internet users, China’s user-base is larger than the combined populations for Japan, Russia, Mexico and the U.S., according to International Monetary Fund data.”

Data from the China Internet Network Information Center shows a 30 million internet user jump during the first half of 2018 alone

Is There Enough Demand to Float a post-Brexit UK Economy?
Some Britons wonder if there are enough business opportunities ‘out there’ in the wider world for the UK to thrive and prosper, post-Brexit.

As the graphic above shows, there are more internet users in China than there are citizens in all of the following countries combined: Japan, Russia, Mexico and the United States.

With internet use in China alone growing at an annual rate greater than the entire population of the United Kingdom you’d think that even the most inept exporters in the world would be lining up to trade with the huge moneypot called China.

Yet, because China isn’t selling itself as a huge marketplace for the world’s exporters and because Brexiteers haven’t ventured to research this part of the Brexit equation, it’s left to Bloomberg News (and me) to inform you of these astonishing developments.

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s European Research Group is a fine organization devoted to fleshing-out the political intricacies of Brexit, trade with the EU in the post-Brexit timeframe, and other Eurocentric matters. Yet, when we view charts like the one above it becomes startlingly clear that an Asian Research Group is needed to fully inform us about politics and trade with Asia in the post-Brexit era.


For example: How many Jaguar cars have been sold in the EU over the past 12 months?

And whatever that number is, it will be a static number for the simple reason that only so many EU citizens can afford a Jaguar motorcar and every one of them simply phones the local Jaguar dealership to order the Jag of their dreams and the car is delivered to their home a few days later.

Yet, I can only surmise that *isn’t* the case in China…


How many Jaguars *aren’t* being sold in China

How many Jaguar cars and SUV’s aren’t being sold in Asia because nobody bothered to research the full potential of the Asian market, or if they have, why aren’t Jaguar building three more factories in the UK to meet the demand of the rapidly growing Chinese middle class?

If internet users in China alone have risen from 22.5 million in year 2000 to 802 million partway through 2018, that demonstrates astonishing growth in their middle class. And if those people are ordering goods and services on the internet because their disposable income is rising fast, why isn’t there an entire department of HM government devoted to helping UK companies to get those online orders instead of just standing idly by and allowing other countries to snap up that business?

By 2030, there will be 1.6 billion internet users in China. How many Jaguar sales will have been lost by then?


It’s Not Only Cars…

Millions of pounds sterling are being lost every month since year 2000 because nobody in the UK government was put in charge of this.

Heads should roll over this shameful ‘oversight’ and not only in the government.

Heads also in the Bank of England, London School of Economics, London Stock Exchange and other organizations need to stop whatever they’re doing right this minute and phone whomever it is that can quickly address this stunning oversight.

Driving along the M4 on your way to the LSE right now? Have your driver pull the car over — you’ve got an important call to make — one that’s 18-years overdue.

With the right stewardship of the country, any good or service the UK produces should have seen the same kind of sales increases as the number of Chinese internet users since 2000. Disposable income is disposable income — and it’s better that UK business gets that disposable income rather than businesses from some other country.

From which, I can only assume that there *hasn’t* been proper stewardship of the UK economy since year 2000.

It goes without saying that nobody knew for certain how the internet was going to grow back in the early 2000’s, therefore, policymakers of that era are largely free of blame. But as each subsequent year passed, this should’ve been addressed with increasing urgency. Certainly, everyone on planet Earth knew by 2005 that the Internet of Things (IoT) was going to be a major part of our civilization in a few short years.

But the silence especially in the UK has been deafening.

“The global IoT market will grow from $157B in 2016 to $457B by 2020, attaining a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 28.5%.” — Forbes


Forget About Cars for a Moment – and Think About Everything Else the UK Produces

As noted earlier, it’s not all about the UK-built cars that aren’t being exported to Asia in huge numbers.

Everything that the UK produces or manufactures in a year could be sold to China and the lot of it wouldn’t register a tiny blip on the Chinese financial charts as demand in the country is massive and it continues to grow at a geometric rate.

If the UK tripled its entire annual GDP in goods, services and produce and then shipped all of it to China, it still wouldn’t produce a blip on the charts. And China continues to grow its economy at (artificially held to lower than) double-digit growth rates.

“GDP Annual Growth Rate in China averaged 9.61 percent from 1989 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 15.40 percent in the first quarter of 1993 and a record low of 3.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990.” — Trading Economics

Asia is the land of opportunity for all who have eyes to see and ears to hear. There isn’t a reason good enough for the UK government or British business to ignore it one more day.

Written by John Brian Shannon | Reposted from LetterToBritain.com


As Brexit Negotiations Lag: Are Europeans Missing Opportunities Bigger Than the Sky? (kleef.asia)